In the interview, Lee forecasted that bitcoin (BTC) has not completed its upward movement and will likely reach new all-time highs around 2020 based on “11 signs that historically only take place in a bull market.” Lee thusly reiterated his previous prognosis made earlier this month, when he said that “a bull market is likely starting.”
Lee explained that three out of those 11 signs — blockchain, technical indicators and trading volumes — indicate that the crypto winter has seen its end. In January, Lee’s team observed that trading volumes on the blockchain turned positive at an annual rate, while the second sign popped up in April, when BTC closed above its 200-day moving average.
The third sign, trading volumes, is connected with over-the-counter brokers, who are “really important in terms of how institutional investors trade crypto.” According to Lee, activity levels based on the number of customers increased by 60% to 70%.
“I think you’re seeing signs that fundamentals are improving, technicals are improving, and now there’s real activity by, essentially, crypto hodlers. […] So I think […] a 2.5 standard deviation move for bitcoin would take it to $14,000. I’m not saying that’s where it’s going to go, but that’s the magnitude of move that would be a catch-up.”
Earlier in April, Lee said that the “Bitcoin Misery Index” (BMI) — which Lee designed with the aim of informing investors of how “miserable” BTC holders are based on the coin’s price and volatility — recently hit its highest figure since June 2016. He suggested that this could be a mixed signal, also noting that “the main takeaway is that BMI reaching 67 is further evidence the bear market for Bitcoin likely ended at $3,000.”
In February, Fundstrat released its 2019 crypto outlook, describing incremental improvements that will purportedly support higher prices for cryptocurrencies. Fundstrat mentioned that the overall interest in crypto might be stimulated by Binance’s recent decision to support credit card crypto purchases, along with the rumors that major companies like Bitfury and Bitmain might consider conducting initial public offerings.